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I wanted to title this article, "How to Make Money From the Bird Flu Pandemic," but the more I think about it, the more I think trying to outguess events will just be too risky. I'm sure that some people and companies will make a bird flu bet that pays off. They'll buy stock in Roche or the companies that just got contracts from the United States government to make bird flu vaccines or in medical supplies or in some other way will make a killing. But I think there're too many unknown factors. Will the virus ever become contagious to people? If so, will it retain its high mortality rate? Will it be quickly contained or will it spread? Prices of goods and services rise and fall in relation to supply and demand. That's basic economics. The trouble is, depending on the answers to those questions and a host of other factors there will be numerous possibilities. Commodities rose in price during the 1918 flu pandemic. Possibly scared Americans would rush to buy oranges in the mistaken belief they contain enough Vitamin C to protect them from bird flu. Or maybe they'll be smarter. Coffee is likely to be in short supply. We grow oranges in America but coffee must come from South America and Africa, two continents that'll be hard hit by bird flu. Coffee futures would likely rise a lot. But if you buy and sell at the wrong time, you could still lose a lot of money. Labor will be in short supply -- but demand will also go down as all but essential businesses close down for the duration. Even if you're a doctor or nurse, you may find yourself drafted for bird flu duty, not given a choice to bargain for more money. Gold will no doubt spike up, as it always does during hard times -- but at some point gold holders will want to sell some to raise money for food, and then the price of gold could collapse. Demand for gold jewelry would plummet during and after the pandemic. I've seen people predict gasoline going up to $7 a gallon, but I think the pandemic could drop the price dramatically, because demand will drop. People will not be driving to school or to work or to recreation or shopping malls. They'll stay home as much as possible. Dead and sick drivers don't buy gasoline. All trucks will stop running except those carrying food, water and medicines. All nonessential airplane travel will stop. Currencies are commodities too, and intimately linked to politics. I have not see anyone else besides myself point out that a serious bird flu pandemic would redraw the political and perhaps the geographical map of the world. If masses of people in a country are upset both by bird flu deaths and resulting economic shortages, they might well overturn their leadership. That means, the old money may become worthless. That means you should stock up on gold now. Although I expect law and order challenges to occur in the U.S., I think the U.S. government will outlive bird flu. Same with Japan and most countries in Western Europe -- though the massive number of immigrants from Muslim countries may pose more of a security hazard than we can guess, making me wonder about countries whose stability I'd have been certain of twenty years ago, such as France and Germany. But could Gloria Magcapal continue to keep a lid on her enemies in The Philippines? Could China continue to repress its entire countryside and avoid splitting into sections? Could India, which has an extremely large number of ethnic minorities? Could the House of Sahd continue to control the government of Saudi Arabia? Not all those countries would have violent governmental changes, but some would. So I think the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, euro, Swiss franc and yen will retain high value. I can't say how they'll move in relation to each other, but they'll all likely retain a store of value. Cash in strong currencies will be king in developed countries. Keep it safe -- in government bonds. Gold will be the winner in developing countries. And bank accounts in stable developed countries. Oh, I just took it for granted that you understand that in the event of a serious pandemic stock markets around the world will scrape bottom.
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